Consequence Analysis

Asset Dependencies shown in TACCS™

“One of the most frequently identified shortfalls in knowledge related to enhancing critical infrastructure protection capabilities is the incomplete understanding of interdependencies between infrastructures.” [1]

Critical assets, key resources, and their associated interdependencies create a highly non-linear and complex system, which as illustrated in the above quote, is inherently difficult for asset owners and decision-makers to fully comprehend. Compounded by secondary and tertiary interdependencies, understanding the resulting emergent behaviors of multiple assets, especially during states of disruption as occur during emergency situations, presents an even greater challenge.

 

TACCS™ addresses this problem using the embedded Unity Simulation Manager (UnitySM) to perform simulation integration and management. UnitySM is a discrete event, time-stepped simulation that allows the user to view the impacts of evolving events in real-time to near real-time. In addition to an underlying agent-based simulation capability, UnitySM supports the integration and customization of third party simulation packages. Third party simulations that have been successfully deployed within TACCS™ using the UnitySM include the Naval Research Laboratory Plume model (CT Analyst) and the HLA-based Lockheed Martin mobility and evacuation model (CultureSim).

A key feature of UnitySM is its ability to be customized to create agent-based simulation entities to represent different types of infrastructure, people, resources, and geographic environments. Behavior elements that can be built into these entities include:

  • Defining the mission/objective of entities

  • Characterizing the physical attributes and capabilities

  • Identifying entity vulnerabilities and potential failure modes

  • Modeling entity reaction to specific events or stimulus, be it physics-based, procedural-based, or historically based (likely behavior).

An event and the subsequent impact, both immediate and cascading as shown with the Consequence Analysis tools in TACCS™.

 1. Mussington, D., “Concepts for Enhancing Critical Infrastructure Protection: Relating Y2K to CIP Research and Development.” RAND: Science and Technology Institute, Santa Monica, CA, 2002, p 29.